Oh man, my Mom’s been reading the series since it came out. She doesn’t go on forums or anything, and she definitely doesn’t use Reddit. We batted this one around for a while some months ago. It’s unlikely that Dany & Jon are sibs because (as far as we know) they were born much less than a year apart…and wouldn’t someone have noticed if the Queen had been pregnant? By Ned Stark? My favorite pet theory is that Jon is really the child of Lyanna & Rhaegar. Ned claimed him as his son (or let everyone assume that he was doing so) in order to Love Never underestimate a woman who loves cats and was born in JUNE Shirt save the kid’s life.
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Not to spoil this for you, but they come right out and tell you in the third chapter. To Love Never underestimate a woman who loves cats and was born in JUNE Shirt quote from (paperback) “Ned would not speak of the mother, but a castle has no secrets…(blah blah blah)…the Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes.” Then Ned procedures to go about stomping the name Ashara Dayne from the very lips of the people in Winterfell. I think this sets of’ John-boy up with some pretty decent bloodlines (The most puissant knight in the land as an uncle, and the man who killed him as a father) to turn into a major player. The thing to keep in mind is that Ned was a truly honorable man. He knew that if he informed Robert of his discovery, then all three children would be killed.
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Ned was inherently unable to stand by and watch a repeat of Robert’s slaughter of children. So he told Cersei in an effort to convince her to flee with the kids. Though I do agree that he was stupid in not preparing for violence before he confronted Cersei. Not very good planning on the part of a supposedly astute general. Then again, his desire to Love Never underestimate a woman who loves cats and was born in JUNE Shirt to avoid the murder of innocents probably clouded his judgment.